Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit

The Haxo Gambit is 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.Bc4 Bc5, the line of the Scotch Gambit in which Black defends the pawn on d4 with the bishop instead of attacking e4 with 4...Nf6. White's bishop already bears down on f7, and White's main replies are 5.c3, 5.Ng5 and 5.O-O. The same position can arise from the Italian Game after 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.d4 exd4.

5.c3

This move has little independent significance. The most common and arguably best answer is 5...Nf6, which transposes to the Classical Variation of the Giuoco Piano, a line in which Black is known to have a satisfactory game. Black can accept the gambit with 5...dxc3, but this is riskier because White gains a lead in development after 6.Bxf7+ Kxf7 7.Qd5+ and Qxc5. Black can also decline with 5...d3, opening the diagonal for the bishop on c5 and taking the c3-square from White's knight; White usually answers 6.b4 or 6.O-O.

5.Ng5

This attack on f7 is generally considered premature. Black's best reply is 5...Nh6, and play most often goes 6.Nxf7 Nxf7 7.Bxf7+ Kxf7 8.Qh5+ g6 9.Qxc5, regaining the material. The line breaks normal opening principles, moving a piece twice and exposing the queen, and was traditionally considered inferior, perhaps influenced by the well-known game Meek–Morphy, Mobile 1855. It has more recently appeared in grandmaster play and seems to give both sides roughly equal chances. Black's main options are 9...d5 and 9...d6, the move Morphy played.

5.O-O

After 5.O-O, the second most common reply, the game usually transposes to the Max Lange Attack after 5...Nf6 6.e5, or leads to the Cochrane-Anderssen Variation after 5...d6 6.c3 Bg4.

The numbers

On Lichess White wins 54.3% of the 3.7 million games and Black 41.8%. The gap closes at the top: from 2200 up it is 47.6% against 45.6%. Masters have done better with Black: in 676 games over the board Black won 35.1%, White 24.0%, and 41.0% were drawn.